![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/sche1.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(\u8fd9\u662f\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u65e7\u6587\uff09 —\u7ed9\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6211\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\u2026 12.13\u65e5\uff0c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e00\u4ee3\u5927\u5e08Thomas Schelling(\u6b47\u6797)\u8fc7\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e7495\u5c81\u3002\u4e00\u76f4\u60f3\u5199\u70b9\u513f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u611f\u89c9\u65f6\u673a\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u3002 \u76f4\u5230\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8bfb\u4e86\u5927\u5e08\u7684\u81ea\u4f20\uff0c\u548c\u8fd1\u65e5\u5317\u4eac\u91cd\u73b0\u7684\u91cd\u5ea6\u96fe\u973e… \u6b63\u6240\u8c13”\u65f6\u4e16\u9020\u4eba”, \u6b47\u6797\u4e0e\u535a\u5955\u8bba\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u5de8\u5320\u7eb3\u4ec0(Nash) \u90fd\u662f\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u7531\u4e8e\u7535\u5f71\uff0c “beautiful mind”\uff0c \u800c\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6b47\u6797\uff0c\u88ab\u5f53\u65f6\u6838\u6bc1\u706d\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u800c\u6df1\u6df1\u89e6\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u62ff\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u6bc5\u7136\u51b3\u5b9a\u8f6c\u5165\u4e13\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u95f4\u6838\u6bc1\u706d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bfe\u9898\u3002 \u5176\u540e\u6b47\u6797\u8fdb\u5165\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u4e24\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4eb2\u624b\u70ae\u5236\u51fa”\u6709\u6548\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u8bba” \uff08credible nuclear threat as strategic deterrence)\uff0c\u4e3a\u6218\u540e70\u591a\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u65e0\u6838\u6218\u4e89\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u4ea4\u6d41\u969c\u788d\u6216\u4e0d\u7545\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u9519\u8bef\u542f\u52a8\u6838\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5728\u6b47\u6797\u7684\u4e00\u518d\u575a\u6301\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u82cf\u5f00\u901a\u4e86\u9996\u8111\u4e13\u7ebf\u7535\u8bdd\u3002 \u6b47\u6797\u7684\u6709\u6548\u5a01\u80c1\u7406\u8bba\u7b80\u5316\u540e\u6709\u70b9\u513f\u8c61\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684”\u7f6e\u4e4b\u6b7b\u5730\u800c\u540e\u751f”\uff0c\u90fd\u5f3a\u8c03\u524a\u51cf\u6211\u65b9\u519b\u961f\u7684\u9000\u8def\u548c\u53ef\u9009\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u654c\u65b9”\u8ba4\u4e3a”\u6211\u65b9\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u9000\u53ef\u9000\u3002\u4f46\u5927\u533a\u522b\u662f: \u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fd0\u7528\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u9f13\u52a8\u6211\u65b9\u519b\u961f\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u548c\u58eb\u6c14; \u800c\u6b47\u6797\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5219\u5f3a\u8c03\u654c\u6211\u7684”\u4e92\u52a8”\u548c\u535a\u5f08: \u00a0“\u65e0\u9000\u8def”\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f7f\u5f97\u5f53\u524d\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u66f4\u52a0\u8ba9\u654c\u4eba\u53ef\u4fe1\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u7ec8\u8feb\u4f7f\u654c\u4ebaback down, \u5750\u4e0b\u6765\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u6216\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u6b47\u6797\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u4ed6\u548c\u4e00\u5e2e\u5fd7\u540c\u9053\u5408\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u653f\u5e9c\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u57f9\u517b\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u653f\u5e9c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6d3e\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b66\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u4e0d\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u3002 \u5728\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b66\u9662\u8fd8\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b66\u9662\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u662f\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u5927\u6742\u70e9: \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u6709\u3002\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b66\u9662\u5df2\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u904d\u5730\u5f00\u82b1\u3002 \u2026\u2026 \u4e0a\u9762\u662f\u5bf9\u5927\u5e08\u7684\u7f05\u6000\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u8bb2\u53f7\u53ec\u3002 \u6b47\u6797\u80fd\u81ea\u521b\u4e00\u6d3e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2aproblem solver, \u5e26\u7740\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6700\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u53bb\u641e\u7814\u7a76\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5982\u4eca\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u96fe\u973e\u3001\u623f\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab…\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4e86\u6c11\u751f\u548c\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u751f\u5b58\u6743\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u57cb\u6028\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c61\u6b47\u6797\u4e00\u6837\uff0canswer the calling, \u53bb\u7740\u529b\u4e3b\u52a8\u53bb\u89e3\u51b3\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u6700\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u8981\u5230\u5904\u6307\u624b\u5212\u811a\uff0c\u641e\u6240\u8c13\u7684”\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49”\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5929\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c1\u5230\u592a\u591a”\u611a\u8822”\u7684\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u6a2a\u884c\u4e8e\u4e16\uff0c \u4f46\u5374\u56e0\u4e3a\u653f\u5e9c\u4fe1\u606f\u7684\u4e0d\u5b8c\u5168\u6216\u90e8\u5206\u5b98\u5458\u7684\u65e0\u80fd\uff0c\u5f97\u4e0d\u5230\u53ca\u65f6\u7ea0\u6b63\u3002 \u548c\u666e\u901a\u767e\u59d3\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u5149\u62b1\u6028\u4e5f\u662f\u6ca1\u7528\u7684\uff0c\u638c\u63e1\u7740\u4e00\u5957\u6709\u529b\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5de5\u5177\u548c\u7406\u8bba\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4e49\u52a1\u8ba9\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u9053\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u51b3\u6216\u6539\u5584\u7684\u3002\u8ba9\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u9053\u4e86\u89e3\u51b3\u65b9\u6cd5\u800c\u4e0d\u65bd\u884c\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u5c31\u8981\u88ab\u95ee\u8d23\u3002 … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":108,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,7],"tags":[23,22],"class_list":["post-105","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-21","category-7","tag-23","tag-22"],"yoast_head":"\n\u4e00\u4f4d\u5de8\u5320\uff0c\u4e00\u4efd\u53f7\u53ec – \u70f9\u5c0f\u9c9c<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/2017\/04\/01\/\u4e00\u4f4d\u5de8\u5320\uff0c\u4e00\u4efd\u53f7\u53ec\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u4e00\u4f4d\u5de8\u5320\uff0c\u4e00\u4efd\u53f7\u53ec – \u70f9\u5c0f\u9c9c\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(\u8fd9\u662f\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u65e7\u6587\uff09 —\u7ed9\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6211\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\u2026 12.13\u65e5\uff0c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e00\u4ee3\u5927\u5e08Thomas Schelling(\u6b47\u6797)\u8fc7\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e7495\u5c81\u3002\u4e00\u76f4\u60f3\u5199\u70b9\u513f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u611f\u89c9\u65f6\u673a\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u3002 \u76f4\u5230\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8bfb\u4e86\u5927\u5e08\u7684\u81ea\u4f20\uff0c\u548c\u8fd1\u65e5\u5317\u4eac\u91cd\u73b0\u7684\u91cd\u5ea6\u96fe\u973e… \u6b63\u6240\u8c13”\u65f6\u4e16\u9020\u4eba”, \u6b47\u6797\u4e0e\u535a\u5955\u8bba\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u5de8\u5320\u7eb3\u4ec0(Nash) \u90fd\u662f\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u7531\u4e8e\u7535\u5f71\uff0c “beautiful mind”\uff0c \u800c\u5bb6\u55bb\u6237\u6653\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u4e00\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6b47\u6797\uff0c\u88ab\u5f53\u65f6\u6838\u6bc1\u706d\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u800c\u6df1\u6df1\u89e6\u52a8\uff0c\u5728\u62ff\u5230\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u5b66\u4f4d\u540e\uff0c\u6bc5\u7136\u51b3\u5b9a\u8f6c\u5165\u4e13\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u8d85\u7ea7\u5927\u56fd\u95f4\u6838\u6bc1\u706d\u8fd9\u4e00\u8bfe\u9898\u3002 \u5176\u540e\u6b47\u6797\u8fdb\u5165\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u548c\u7ea6\u7ff0\u900a\u4e24\u5c4a\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4eb2\u624b\u70ae\u5236\u51fa”\u6709\u6548\u6838\u5a01\u80c1\u8bba” \uff08credible nuclear threat as strategic deterrence)\uff0c\u4e3a\u6218\u540e70\u591a\u5e74\u4e16\u754c\u65e0\u6838\u6218\u4e89\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u5de8\u5927\u8d21\u732e\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e3a\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u4ea4\u6d41\u969c\u788d\u6216\u4e0d\u7545\u800c\u5bfc\u81f4\u9519\u8bef\u542f\u52a8\u6838\u6218\u4e89\uff0c\u5728\u6b47\u6797\u7684\u4e00\u518d\u575a\u6301\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u82cf\u5f00\u901a\u4e86\u9996\u8111\u4e13\u7ebf\u7535\u8bdd\u3002 \u6b47\u6797\u7684\u6709\u6548\u5a01\u80c1\u7406\u8bba\u7b80\u5316\u540e\u6709\u70b9\u513f\u8c61\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684”\u7f6e\u4e4b\u6b7b\u5730\u800c\u540e\u751f”\uff0c\u90fd\u5f3a\u8c03\u524a\u51cf\u6211\u65b9\u519b\u961f\u7684\u9000\u8def\u548c\u53ef\u9009\u6218\u7565\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u4f7f\u654c\u65b9”\u8ba4\u4e3a”\u6211\u65b9\u51e0\u4e4e\u65e0\u9000\u53ef\u9000\u3002\u4f46\u5927\u533a\u522b\u662f: \u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fd0\u7528\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u7528\u4e8e\u9f13\u52a8\u6211\u65b9\u519b\u961f\u4f5c\u6218\u7684\u51b3\u5fc3\u548c\u58eb\u6c14; \u800c\u6b47\u6797\u7684\u7406\u8bba\u5219\u5f3a\u8c03\u654c\u6211\u7684”\u4e92\u52a8”\u548c\u535a\u5f08: \u00a0“\u65e0\u9000\u8def”\uff0c\u4fbf\u4f7f\u5f97\u5f53\u524d\u53d1\u51fa\u7684\u5a01\u80c1\u66f4\u52a0\u8ba9\u654c\u4eba\u53ef\u4fe1\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u7ec8\u8feb\u4f7f\u654c\u4ebaback down, \u5750\u4e0b\u6765\u8c08\u5224\uff0c\u6216\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u6b47\u6797\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u8d21\u732e\u662f\u4ed6\u548c\u4e00\u5e2e\u5fd7\u540c\u9053\u5408\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u521b\u5efa\u4e86\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u653f\u5e9c\u5b66\u9662\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u57f9\u517b\u548c\u6559\u80b2\u65b0\u4e00\u4ee3\u653f\u5e9c\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u6bcf\u5e74\u6d3e\u5230\u8fd9\u4e00\u5b66\u9662\u5b66\u4e60\u548c\u4ea4\u6d41\u7684\u4eba\u6570\u4e0d\u5728\u5c11\u6570\u3002 \u5728\u5f53\u65f6\uff0c\u4e13\u95e8\u7814\u7a76\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b66\u9662\u8fd8\u6c92\u6709\uff0c\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u79cd\u5b66\u9662\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u662f\u4e2a\u5b66\u79d1\u5927\u6742\u70e9: \u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u5b66\u4ec0\u4e48\u90fd\u6709\u3002\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u80af\u5c3c\u8fea\u5b66\u9662\u7684\u5de8\u5927\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5982\u4eca\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u5b66\u9662\u5df2\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u904d\u5730\u5f00\u82b1\u3002 \u2026\u2026 \u4e0a\u9762\u662f\u5bf9\u5927\u5e08\u7684\u7f05\u6000\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u8bb2\u53f7\u53ec\u3002 \u6b47\u6797\u80fd\u81ea\u521b\u4e00\u6d3e\u5728\u4e8e\u4ed6\u662f\u4e00\u4e2aproblem solver, \u5e26\u7740\u65f6\u4ee3\u7684\u6700\u5927\u95ee\u9898\u53bb\u641e\u7814\u7a76\u3002 \u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u8fdb\u7a0b\u4e2d\u5982\u4eca\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5927\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u96fe\u973e\u3001\u623f\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab…\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e25\u91cd\u5f71\u54cd\u5230\u4e86\u6c11\u751f\u548c\u4eba\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u751f\u5b58\u6743\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u57cb\u6028\u653f\u5e9c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8c61\u6b47\u6797\u4e00\u6837\uff0canswer the calling, \u53bb\u7740\u529b\u4e3b\u52a8\u53bb\u89e3\u51b3\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u4e2a\u65f6\u4ee3\u6700\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002 \u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u8bf4\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u8981\u5230\u5904\u6307\u624b\u5212\u811a\uff0c\u641e\u6240\u8c13\u7684”\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5e1d\u56fd\u4e3b\u4e49”\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7814\u7a76\u8005\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5929\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c1\u5230\u592a\u591a”\u611a\u8822”\u7684\u516c\u5171\u653f\u7b56\u6a2a\u884c\u4e8e\u4e16\uff0c 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\u70f9\u5c0f\u9c9c","og_description":"(\u8fd9\u662f\u53bb\u5e7412\u6708\u5199\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u65e7\u6587\uff09 —\u7ed9\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u6211\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u670b\u53cb\u4eec\u2026 12.13\u65e5\uff0c\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u4e00\u4ee3\u5927\u5e08Thomas Schelling(\u6b47\u6797)\u8fc7\u4e16\uff0c\u4eab\u5e7495\u5c81\u3002\u4e00\u76f4\u60f3\u5199\u70b9\u513f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u4f46\u603b\u611f\u89c9\u65f6\u673a\u4e0d\u6210\u719f\u3002 \u76f4\u5230\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u4ed4\u7ec6\u8bfb\u4e86\u5927\u5e08\u7684\u81ea\u4f20\uff0c\u548c\u8fd1\u65e5\u5317\u4eac\u91cd\u73b0\u7684\u91cd\u5ea6\u96fe\u973e… \u6b63\u6240\u8c13”\u65f6\u4e16\u9020\u4eba”, \u6b47\u6797\u4e0e\u535a\u5955\u8bba\u53e6\u4e00\u4f4d\u5de8\u5320\u7eb3\u4ec0(Nash) \u90fd\u662f\u51b7\u6218\u65f6\u671f\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\u3002\u7eb3\u4ec0\u7531\u4e8e\u7535\u5f71\uff0c “beautiful mind”\uff0c 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<\/a><\/p>\n