![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/chinashock1.jpg\")
<\/a><\/p>\n\u7ea2\u8272\u7ebf\u662f\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u9002\u9f84\u5de5\u4f5c\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u7b80\u79f0\u201c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u201d(\u53f3\u8fb9\u5750\u6807)\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4ece1987\u5e74\u768413%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52302007\u5e74\u76848%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8d8b\u52bf\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u957f\u671f\u7684\u201c\u53bb\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u201d\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5176\u8d77\u59cb\u65f6\u95f4\u8981\u8fdc\u65e9\u4e8e87\u5e74\uff1b \u00a0\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8d8b\u52bf\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u8d38\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u786e\u6709\u52a0\u901f\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ece10%\u6ed1\u52308%\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e862%\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u89c4\u6a21\u5462\uff1f \u7f8e\u56fd\u9002\u9f84\u5de5\u4f5c\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u57282007\u5e74\u662f2\u4ebf\u4eba\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c2\u4ebf\u76842%\u5c31\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e4\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u3002 \u6240\u4ee5, \u7c97\u7565\u8ba1\u63a5\u8fd14\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u57282001-2007\u5e74\u95f4\u88ab\u6324\u51fa\u4e86\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3002(\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u80fd\u5168\u602a\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u4e5f\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u5de5\u4eba)<\/p>\n
\u628a\u7ea2\u84dd\u4e24\u6761\u7ebf\u4e00\u7efc\u5408\uff0c\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684”China shock”, \u4e2d\u56fd\u51b2\u51fb\u6ce2\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u4ee5\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u5bf9\u672c\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u548c\u4ee5\u524d\u51e0\u6b21\u76f8\u6bd4\u5b9e\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u540c\u65e5\u800c\u8bed\u3002 \u57281991\u5e74\uff0c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u53ea\u5360\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u603b\u989d\u76849%\uff1b2000\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u8d38\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f15%, \u800c\u5230\u4e862007\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6500\u5347\u5230\u4e8627%\u3002 \u00a0\u8fd927%\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c17%\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd(27%x17%=4.6%)\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u62a8\u51fb\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\u6307\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6240\u4ee5\u8bf4\uff0c\u75ae\u94fa\u53eb\u56a3\u8981\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u8bfe\u4ee545%\u7684\u5173\u7a0e\u662f\u6709\u6df1\u523b\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u6d4e\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u3002 \u81f3\u4e8e\u5230\u5e95\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u5c31\u770b\u75ae\u94fa\u662f\u5426\u63a5\u53d7\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u5efa\u8bae\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u75ae\u94fa(Trump)\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\uff0c\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u671f\u5f85\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u3002 \u75ae\u94fa\u5927\u9009\u83b7\u80dc\u540e\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5143\u8001\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6218\u7565\u5bb6\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u91c7\u8bbf\u3002 \u8c08\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u95ee\u9898\u65f6\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u653f\u5e9c\u6267\u653f\u7ecf\u9a8c\u7684\u75ae\u94fa\u5728\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u81ea\u7136\u5730\u6709\u5ef6\u7eed\u4ed6\u5546\u4eba\u4f5c\u98ce\u7684\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u5373\u6025\u4e8e\u60f3\u8981\u505a\u6210\u4e00\u7b14\u4ea4\u6613(make a deal)\u3002 \u4f46\u548c\u56fd\u5bb6\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\uff0c\u7edd\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u6b21\u6027\u7684\u4ea4\u6613\u6216\u5b8c\u6210\u67d0\u4e2a\u5730\u4ea7\u9879\u76ee\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8981\u901a\u8fc7\u53cd\u590d\u5730\u4ea4\u5f80\u5efa\u7acb\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u548c\u4fe1\u8a89(reputation)…\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6700\u7ec8\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f5c\u51fa\u8ba9\u6b65\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u65f6\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5bfb\u6c42\u7f8e\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\u4f5c\u51fa\u5bf9\u7b49\u7684\u91cd\u5927\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728\u5bf9\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u5916\u4ea4\u4e0a\u7684\u5931\u8d25\u5c31\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u4ece\u4fc4\u7f57\u65af\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u4e0a\u8bbe\u8eab\u5904\u5730\u8003\u8651\u95ee\u9898\uff1b\u540c\u6837\uff0c\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u65f6\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u7ad9\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6218\u7565\u5229\u76ca\u4e0a\u8003\u8651\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5149\u5f3a\u8c03\u7f8e\u56fd\u60f3\u8981\u4ec0\u4e48\u3002 \u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u7684\u8bdd\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5c31\u662f\u535a\u5f08\u8bba\u5728\u5916\u4ea4\u4e0a\u7684\u6700\u597d\u8fd0\u7528\uff1a\u5148\u6e05\u695a\u8ba1\u7b97\u5bf9\u65b9\u7684\u5f97\u5931\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5728\u4e0d\u8bba\u5bf9\u65b9\u4f1a\u91c7\u53d6\u54ea\u79cd\u5bf9\u7b56\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\uff0c\u81ea\u5df1\u53bb\u9009\u62e9\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u5e94\u5bf9\u7b56\u7565, \u5373\u7eb3\u4ec0\u5747\u8861\u3002 …. \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u6765\u54cd\u5e94\u4e00\u4e0b\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u7684\u201c\u53f7\u53ec\u201d\uff0c\u4ece\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u6765\u7b80\u5355\u5206\u6790\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e00\u5b9a\u8981\u4e2d\u56fd\u5728\u8d38\u6613\u4e0a\u4f5c\u51fa\u8ba9\u6b65\u3002 \u4e0b\u56fe\u6e90\u81ea2013\u5e74\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u201c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8bc4\u8bba\u201d\u3002\u84dd\u8272\u7ebf\u53eb\u505a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u4fb5\u5165\u7387\u201d, \u5b9a\u4e49\u4e3a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5bf9\u7f8e\u53e3\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b(\u5de6\u8fb9\u5750\u6807)\u3002\u4ece\u56fe\u4e2d\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u51fa\u53e3\u5728\u5360\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u8fdb\u53e3\u7684\u4efd\u989d\u4ece1991\u5e74\u76840.6%\uff0c\u4e0a\u5347\u5230\u4e862001\u76842%\uff1b2001\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u8d38\uff0c\u4fb5\u5165\u7387\u4ece2%\u5de6\u53f3\u53c8\u8df3\u8dc3\u52302007\u5e74\u76844.6%\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c1991\u52302007\u768416\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c\u4fb5\u5165\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u4e864%, \u662f0.6%\u76846.7\u500d, \u589e\u957f\u8fc5\u731b\u3002 \u7ea2\u8272\u7ebf\u662f\u540c\u65f6\u671f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u4eba\u6570\u5360\u5168\u56fd\u9002\u9f84\u5de5\u4f5c\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e0b\u9762\u7b80\u79f0\u201c\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u5c31\u4e1a\u6bd4\u4f8b\u201d(\u53f3\u8fb9\u5750\u6807)\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u4e0b\u6ed1\uff0c\u4ece1987\u5e74\u768413%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u52302007\u5e74\u76848%\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8d8b\u52bf\u53cd\u6620\u4e86\u7f8e\u56fd\u7b49\u53d1\u8fbe\u56fd\u5bb6\u957f\u671f\u7684\u201c\u53bb\u5de5\u4e1a\u5316\u201d\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u5176\u8d77\u59cb\u65f6\u95f4\u8981\u8fdc\u65e9\u4e8e87\u5e74\uff1b \u00a0\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0b\u6ed1\u8d8b\u52bf\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u8d38\u4ee5\u540e\u7684\u786e\u6709\u52a0\u901f\u503e\u5411\uff0c\u8868\u73b0\u5728\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u4eba\u5458\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4ece10%\u6ed1\u52308%\uff0c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e862%\u3002 \u8fd9\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u89c4\u6a21\u5462\uff1f \u7f8e\u56fd\u9002\u9f84\u5de5\u4f5c\u603b\u4eba\u53e3\u57282007\u5e74\u662f2\u4ebf\u4eba\u5dee\u4e00\u70b9\uff0c2\u4ebf\u76842%\u5c31\u76f8\u5f53\u4e8e4\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u3002 \u6240\u4ee5, \u7c97\u7565\u8ba1\u63a5\u8fd14\u767e\u4e07\u4eba\u57282001-2007\u5e74\u95f4\u88ab\u6324\u51fa\u4e86\u5236\u9020\u4e1a\u3002(\u5f53\u7136\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e0d\u80fd\u5168\u602a\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u6280\u672f\u8fdb\u6b65\u4e5f\u53d6\u4ee3\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u5de5\u4eba) \u628a\u7ea2\u84dd\u4e24\u6761\u7ebf\u4e00\u7efc\u5408\uff0c\u5982\u56fe\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u8c13\u7684”China shock”, \u4e2d\u56fd\u51b2\u51fb\u6ce2\u3002 \u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8ba4\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u8fd9\u6b21\u4ee5\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e3a\u9996\u7684\u4f4e\u5de5\u8d44\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u5bf9\u672c\u56fd\u5c31\u4e1a\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u548c\u4ee5\u524d\u51e0\u6b21\u76f8\u6bd4\u5b9e\u5728\u4e0d\u53ef\u540c\u65e5\u800c\u8bed\u3002 \u57281991\u5e74\uff0c\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u56fd\u5bb6\u7684\u8fdb\u53e3\u52a0\u8d77\u6765\u53ea\u5360\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u8fdb\u53e3\u603b\u989d\u76849%\uff1b2000\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u8d38\u524d\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u662f15%, \u800c\u5230\u4e862007\u5e74\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6500\u5347\u5230\u4e8627%\u3002 \u00a0\u8fd927%\u5f53\u4e2d\uff0c17%\u662f\u6765\u81ea\u4e2d\u56fd(27%x17%=4.6%)\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u5360\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u6700\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u62a8\u51fb\u81ea\u7531\u8d38\u6613\uff0c\u653f\u5ba2\u4eec\u90fd\u4f1a\u9996\u5f53\u5176\u51b2\u6307\u5411\u4e2d\u56fd\u3002 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\u4e2d\u56fd\u51b2\u51fb\u6ce2 China Shock – \u70f9\u5c0f\u9c9c<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/2016\/11\/18\/\u4e2d\u56fd\u51b2\u51fb\u6ce2-china-shock\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u4e2d\u56fd\u51b2\u51fb\u6ce2 China Shock – \u70f9\u5c0f\u9c9c\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u75ae\u94fa(Trump)\u4e0a\u53f0\u540e\uff0c\u6700\u4ee4\u4eba\u671f\u5f85\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5c31\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u6253\u4ea4\u9053\u3002 \u75ae\u94fa\u5927\u9009\u83b7\u80dc\u540e\uff0c\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5143\u8001\u3001\u5916\u4ea4\u6218\u7565\u5bb6\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u91c7\u8bbf\u3002 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