{"id":13,"date":"2014-09-22T16:03:26","date_gmt":"2014-09-22T16:03:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/?p=13"},"modified":"2015-05-11T08:32:48","modified_gmt":"2015-05-11T08:32:48","slug":"%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%9a%84%e6%88%bf%e4%ba%a7%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%ef%bc%88%e5%9b%9b%ef%bc%89","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/2014\/09\/22\/%e4%b8%ad%e5%9b%bd%e7%9a%84%e6%88%bf%e4%ba%a7%e6%b3%a1%e6%b2%ab%ef%bc%88%e5%9b%9b%ef%bc%89\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u623f\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\uff08\u56db\uff09"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u524d\u5929\u6709\u4e00\u53cb\u4eba\u8fdc\u9053\u6765\u8bbf\uff0c\u4e0d\u4ea6\u4e50\u4e4e\u3002\u662fBrandeis\u6821\u53cb\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5370\u5ea6\u4eba\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u806a\u660e\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\uff0c\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u770b\u5168\u7403\u8303\u56f4\u5b8f\u89c2\u6295\u8d44\u7b56\u7565\u7684\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5e72\u4e867-8\u5e74\u4e86\u3002\u5e2d\u95f4\u6709\u610f\u65e0\u610f\u626f\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u623f\u4ea7\u6ce1\u6cab\u3002<wbr \/>\u4ed6\u4e0d\u8ba4\u4e3a\u6709\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u7406\u7531\u662f\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u548c\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u53e3\u6d8c\u5165\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662f\u7279\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c<wbr \/>\u571f\u5730\u4f9b\u7ed9\u53c8\u7ed9\u653f\u5e9c\u63a7\u5236\u7740\u2015\u2015\u2015\u6709\u8fd9\u4e48\u5927\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u53c8\u8ddf\u4e0d\u4e0a\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e48\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab?!<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u548c\u56fd\u5185\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u662f\u4e00\u81f4\u7684\u3002<wbr \/>\u6211\u8010\u5fc3\u5730\u7ed9\u4ed6\u8bb2\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u6ce1\u6cab\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u8bb2\u4e86\u5927\u698210\u5206\u949f\uff0c<wbr \/>\u51e0\u4e2a\u6765\u56de\u8fc7\u540e\uff0c\u4ed6\u6ca1\u6709\u518d\u53cd\u9a73\u3002\u6211\u60f3\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ed6\u662f\u540c\u610f\u6211\u4e86\uff1a<wbr \/>\u56e0\u4e3a\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u4ed6\u5c31\u95ee\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u4f1a\u7834\u88c2\u3002<wbr \/>\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u663e\u7136\u662f\u6ca1\u4eba\u80fd\u591f\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6211\u8fd8\u662f\u8ddf\u4ed6\u8bb2\u4e0d\u80fd\u7b3c\u7edf\u5730\u8c08\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u8981\u5206\u6e05\u6295\u673a\u9700\u6c42(<wbr \/>speculative demand)\u548c\u5b9e\u9645\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42(real housing demand)\u7684\u533a\u522b\u3002\u5f53\u7136\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c<wbr \/>\u4e24\u8005\u662f\u4e92\u76f8\u63a8\u6ce2\u52a9\u6f9c\u7684\u3002\u6295\u673a\u9700\u6c42\u4e0d\u4e3a\u5c45\u4f4f\uff0c\u5168\u4e3a\u5347\u503c\uff1b<wbr \/>\u548c\u6295\u8d44\u7684\u533a\u522b\u53c8\u5728\u4e8e\u8fd9\u7c7b\u4eba\u4e0d\u505a\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u53ea\u770b\u4ef7\u683c\u8ddf\u98ce\uff1b\u4e0d\u770b\u957f\uff0c<wbr \/>\u53ea\u770b\u77ed\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u4eba\u4e70\u623f\u5168\u4e3a\u4e86\u5c45\u4f4f\uff0c<wbr \/>\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u4f34\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u6295\u8d44\u6210\u5206\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u4e3a\u77ed\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u53d8\u5316\u6240\u52a8\u3002<wbr \/>\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u4e2a\u9700\u8981\u9996\u5148\u660e\u786e\u7684\u662f\uff1a<wbr \/>\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5316\u65b0\u79fb\u6c11\u4e2d\u7684\u5927\u5b66\u6bd5\u4e1a\u751f\u548c\u519c\u6c11\u5de5\uff0c\u6570\u91cf\u7684\u786e\u5f88\u5927\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u628a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5168\u90e8\u7b97\u5165\u5b9e\u9645\u4f4f\u623f\u9700\u6c42\u884c\u5217\u3002\u4f46\u7531\u4e8e\u5176\u521d\u671f\u6536\u5165\u8f83\u5c11\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u6ce1\u6cab\uff0c\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5185\u4e5f\u4e70\u4e0d\u8d77\u623f\uff085-10\u5e74\u540e\u5174\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\uff09\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5e94\u8be5\u5254\u9664\uff0c\u5c06\u5176\u653e\u5165\u79df\u623f\u5e02\u573a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u660e\u786e\u8fd9\u4e24\u70b9\u540e\uff0c\u5148\u6765\u770b\u4e00\u4e2a\u6bd4\u8f83\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u3002<wbr \/>\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u9700\u6c42\u7edd\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7531\u5b9e\u9645\u4f4f\u623f\u4eba\u6784\u6210\u7684\u5e02\u573a\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5927\u5bb6\u6309\u884c\u60c5\u81ea\u52a8\u7ade\u4ef7\uff0c\u4e70\u5f97\u8d77\u7684\u5c31\u4e70\uff0c\u4e70\u4e0d\u8d77\u7684\u3001\u5acc\u8d35\u7684\u6682\u65f6\u7b49\u5f85\uff1a<wbr \/>\u6216\u79df\u623f\uff0c\u6216\u6362\u5230\u5176\u4ed6\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u4f4f\u3002\u8fd9\u6837\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5982\u679c\u5f00\u53d1\u5546\u6709\u5229\u53ef\u56fe\uff0c\u90a3\u4e48\u5c31\u4f1a\u591a\u5efa\u623f\uff0c\u4f9b\u7ed9\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\uff0c<wbr \/>\u4ef7\u683c\u6162\u6162\u5c31\u4e0b\u6765\u4e86\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u6b63\u5e38\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u5f62\u6210\u673a\u5236\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u4e00\u6237\u4e00\u623f\uff0c<wbr \/>\u6216\u79df\u6216\u4e70\uff0c\u6ca1\u6709\u95f2\u7f6e\u4f4f\u623f\u3002\u6b27\u7f8e\u56fd\u5bb6\u6b63\u5e38\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0b\u57fa\u672c\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u3002<wbr \/>\u5f53\u7136\u5728\u623f\u4ea7\u4fe1\u8d37\u6cdb\u6ee5\u65f6\uff0c\u59822003-2006\u5e74\uff0c\u9664\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u518d\u6765\u7ec6\u8c08\u6295\u673a\u3002\u6295\u673a\u548c\u9010\u5229\u4f3c\u4e4e\u662f\u4eba\u7684\u5929\u6027\uff0c\u4ece\u53e4\u81f3\u4eca\u5386\u6765\u6709\u4e4b\u3002<wbr \/>\u4eba\u7684\u6536\u5165\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\u662f\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u52a0\u4ee5\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u6295\u673a\u9700\u6c42\u603b\u4f1a\u5e94\u8fd0\u800c\u751f\uff0c<wbr \/>\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u6536\u5165\u548c\u8d22\u5bcc\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u957f\u4e14\u4f34\u6709\u4e25\u91cd\u8d2a\u8150\u7684\u793e\u4f1a\u3002<wbr \/>\u6709\u94b1\u4eba\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u591a\u610f\u5473\u7740\u79ef\u7d2f\u7684\u8d22\u5bcc\u9700\u8981\u8fdb\u884c\u6295\u8d44\uff0c<wbr \/>\u4f46\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u8d44\u4ea7\u54c1\u548c\u6e20\u9053\u4e25\u91cd\u53d7\u9650\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u6295\u8d44\u4e0d\u6210\uff0c<wbr \/>\u6295\u673a\u4e4b\u98ce\u5374\u8d8a\u6f14\u8d8a\u70c8\u3002\u8fd9\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u4e2d\u56fd\u6295\u8d44\u73af\u5883\u7684\u57fa\u8c03\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<wbr \/>\u6709\u94b1\u7684\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e70\u4e0a\u597d\u51e0\u5957\u751a\u81f3\u51e0\u5341\u5957\u623f\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u6295\u8d44\u201d\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u6295\u673a\u3002<wbr \/>\u7531\u4e8e\u6295\u673a\u9700\u6c42\u7684\u52a0\u5165\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u603b\u9700\u6c42\u9661\u589e\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u88ab\u8fc5\u901f\u62c9\u9ad8\uff0c<wbr \/>\u4e0a\u9762\u672c\u6765\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e70\u5f97\u8d77\u623f\u7684\u5f88\u5927\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u88ab\u6324\u51fa\u9700\u6c42\u884c\u5217\u3002<wbr \/>\u4ef7\u683c\u62c9\u9ad8\u540e\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6ca1\u6709\u571f\u5730\u74f6\u9888\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5efa\u623f\u9700\u8981\u65f6\u65e5\uff0c<wbr \/>\u4e00\u65f6\u534a\u4f1a\u513f\u4e5f\u6ca1\u6cd5\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\uff1b\u52a0\u4e4b\u4e2d\u56fd\u519c\u6751\u571f\u5730\u4ea7\u6743\u5b8c\u5168\u6ca1\u7406\u6e05\uff0c<wbr \/>\u901a\u8fc7\u589e\u52a0\u4f9b\u7ed9\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u4e0b\u8c03\u5c31\u8d8a\u53d1\u6765\u5f97\u6162\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u4e8e\u662f\u5c45\u9ad8\u4e0d\u4e0b\u3002<wbr \/>\u4e00\u5b9a\u65f6\u65e5\u540e\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4fbf\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\u5fae\u5999\u53d8\u5316\uff0c<wbr \/>\u770b\u9ad8\u7684\u8d85\u8fc7\u770b\u4f4e\u7684\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u6295\u673a\u8005\u8ddf\u98ce\u6d8c\u5165\uff0c\u8c0b\u53d6\u77ed\u671f\u4ef7\u683c\u5347\u503c\u3002<wbr \/>\u76f4\u5230\u6295\u673a\u9700\u6c42\u5b8c\u5168\u5360\u4e86\u4e0a\u98ce\uff0c\u4ef7\u683c\u5f62\u6210\u673a\u5236\u88ab\u5b8c\u5168\u6539\u53d8\u3002<wbr \/>\u9700\u6c42\u66f2\u7ebf\u5982\u4eca\u5f7b\u5e95\u8be5\u53d8\u4e86\u65b9\u5411\uff1a\u4e0d\u662f\u7ecf\u5178\u7684\u5411\u4e0b\u503e\u659c\uff08<wbr \/>downward sloping )\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d8\u6210\u5411\u4e0a\u503e\u659c\uff08upward sloping\uff09\u4e86\uff0c\u5373\u623f\u4ef7\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e70\u7684\u4eba\u8d8a\u591a\uff01\uff01<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/housingdemand.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-14\" src=\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/housingdemand-300x242.jpg\" alt=\"housingdemand\" width=\"368\" height=\"297\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/housingdemand-300x242.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.pauldeng.com\/shrimp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/05\/housingdemand.jpg 350w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 368px) 100vw, 368px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u6837\u51e0\u4e2a\u6765\u56de\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u653f\u5e9c\u5b8f\u89c2\u8c03\u63a7\u7684\u4e0d\u575a\u51b3\uff0c\u7ed3\u679c\u4eba\u4eec\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u9884\u671f\u5c31\u8d8a\u53d1\u8d85\u4e4e\u73b0\u5b9e\uff0c<wbr \/>\u6076\u6027\u5faa\u73af\u4e8e\u662f\u5f62\u6210\uff0c\u6ce1\u6cab\u8d8a\u53d8\u8d8a\u5927\u3002\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u9636\u6bb5\uff0c<wbr \/>\u65e0\u6570\u9760\u6295\u673a\u623f\u5730\u4ea7\u53d1\u5bb6\u7684\u6545\u4e8b\uff0c\u548c\u65e0\u6570\u5bf9\u9519\u8fc7\u65f6\u673a\u4e70\u623f\u3001<wbr \/>\u73b0\u6b32\u8df3\u697c\u7ec6\u8282\u7684\u63cf\u8ff0\u90fd\u4ece\u672c\u8d28\u4e0a\u6539\u53d8\u4e86\u4eba\u4eec\u5fc3\u7406\u3002<wbr 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